The Proximo 2019 Festive Trends Round-up

Guests:

Michael Whalen, Berkeley Research Group

Ian Cogswell, Cogswell Consulting

Jonathan Yellen

Proximo’s top market trends in the energy and infrastructure market, as chosen by the Proximo Transmission Weekly regulars in the Proximo Festive Trends Round-up and Draft.

These trends were taken from a list assembled by Proximo, unless indicated otherwise.

For more details of these trends, listen to the episode in the player above

1. Refinancing. Ian Cogswell’s own trend
2. Convergence between infrastructure and real estate. Jonathan Yellen’s own trend
3. Battery storage becomes nearly bankable. Michael Whalen
4. The year that coal project finance refused to die. Tom Nelthorpe
5. Green loans look more promising - but only for corporates - Ian Cogswell
6. The UK PFI market collapses - Tom Nelthorpe
7. From Libor to SOFR/SONIA and so on - Michael Whalen
8. P3 market solidifies in the US - Jonathan Yellen’s own trend
9. Green bonds go mainstream - Michael Whalen
10. The rise of non-utility offtakers in the US - Jonathan Yellen’s own trend
11. Infrastructure funds moving into debt - Ian Cogswell
12. Proximo is born! - Tom Nelthorpe

The trends that didn’t make the cut from the Proximo Transmission regulars, but which Proximo has identified as being significant, are, in no particular order:

• US power bankers softening on merchant risk: Whether with a looser approach to commodities price risk in conventional power, or merchant tails in solar, merchant risks in financings are growing.
• Egypt and Turkey retain their fan base: While both have undergone political and economic upheaval in recent years, lenders are sticking with both markets.
• Political risk hits Latin American infrastructure procurement: Mexico, Brazil and Argentina have often posed challenges to lenders in the past, though all of them have showed signs of improvement. Rioting in Chile - over transit fares no less - was more of a surprise
• Floating solar becomes bankable: A small number of deals closed in 2019, and there appear to be few bankability issues. But costs will still be a key concern for lenders
• Offshore wind becomes a phenomenon outside Europe: Taiwan has emerged as a non-European powerhouse for offshore wind. But the US is still failing to make good on its promise.
• The Canadian PPP market peaks: A key departure from the new national infrastructure bank, financial struggles at contractors, and issues with complex transit projects. Is the world’s most successful PPP market in danger of overreaching itself?

The trends to watch out for in 2020

• The US elections - Michael Whalen
• The potential for a debt market correction - Jonathan Yellen
• Newer infrastructure finance markets emerge - Ian Cogswell